Resolve the stochastic prediction for the 1699 Leonid trail in 2034

Determine whether the 1699 Leonid trail produces a significant 2034 encounter by resolving the ejection-realisation dependence that places the section either far from Earth with no appreciable activity or within 3.8 radial kernel widths of Earth with ZHR approximately 132.

Background

The model cannot give a stable 2034 prediction for the ten-revolution 1699 trail because the result depends strongly on how dust ejection is discretized into at most 40 bursts per return. In the adopted realization, the trail lies 63 radial kernel widths from Earth's orbit and produces no activity.

A different ejection realization places the same section 3.8 kernel widths from Earth and produces ZHR 132. Because the outcome switches between a substantial encounter and no encounter, the paper reports the section as undetermined rather than absent and makes no claim against the published forecast.

References

The fourth, the ten-revolution 1699 trail he puts at ZHR 1500, we report as undetermined rather than absent: it is the one section whose answer flips with the ejection realisation, from $63\sigma_r$ and nothing to $3.8\sigma_r$ and ZHR 132 (note~$d$ of Table~\ref{tab:cmp}).

— A calibrated dust-trail model of the Leonid meteoroid stream and forecasts of the 2031-2035 encounters  (2608.25456 - Abe, 26 Aug 2026) in Section 6, paragraph “Comparison with the published forecast”; Table 5, footnote d