Should observational and modeling studies be used to set policy guidelines?

Determine whether observational studies and modeling simulations based on observational data should be used to inform policy guidelines and regulatory decisions, such as those issued by the United States Preventive Services Taskforce.

Background

In discussing how statistical methods should function as ex ante policy for governance and regulation, the paper notes that agencies often rely on observational or modeling studies to establish guidelines. A central normative uncertainty is whether such uses are appropriate within a framework that emphasizes ex ante guarantees and transparent, pre-specified rules.

The example of the United States Preventive Services Taskforce (USPSTF) highlights real-world reliance on modeling studies grounded in observational data, prompting the unresolved question of whether this practice should be endorsed within a bureaucratic theory of statistics focused on policy-making.