Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest (2508.13383v1)

Abstract: The Amazon rainforest and the AMOC are two key components of the Earth system and may both collapse under climate change. Due to its influence on precipitation patterns, a collapsed AMOC influences the dynamics of the Amazon rainforest. We investigate this effect using a coupled conceptual AMOC-Amazon model. The Amazon model is based on empirical hydrological data controlled by the AMOC strength. The AMOC model and its influence on the Amazon are tuned using a simulated AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Since the collapse of both systems is very rare, we study it using a ``rare-event'' algorithm, which samples such events much more efficiently than direct numerical simulation. This algorithm also allows us to track many observables of interest of the coupled model. We find that in the centre of the Amazon basin an AMOC collapse is a necessary condition for the Amazon rainforest to collapse, due to its important drying effect. Moreover, we are able to quantify the importance of the AMOC in this tipping cascade by computing the conditional probability that the collapse of the Amazon rainforest follows that of the AMOC, given that the Amazon rainforest turns into a savannah within $200$ years.