Determine whether recent research-success trends persist

Determine whether the recent rate-of-progress trend in a scientific research program will continue once new experimental resources or facilities become available, particularly when evaluating the ex-ante pursuitworthiness of high-energy particle-physics research.

Background

The paper criticizes Laudan’s rate-of-progress criterion because it extrapolates from a research program’s past performance to its future prospects. This extrapolation is crucial for ex-ante assessments of pursuitworthiness, but a weak or stagnant recent record may not reliably indicate what will happen after researchers gain access to new instruments or higher-energy regimes.

The issue is illustrated by proposals for new multi-billion-dollar particle colliders after more than a decade without conclusive evidence of new particles following the Higgs-boson discovery. The unresolved question is whether the observed lack of progress will persist or whether new machines could reopen promising experimental territory.