Establish whether expected epistemic gains can be calculated

Establish whether the expected epistemic gain of a research project can be calculated when all possible outcomes are identified and precise likelihoods are assigned, especially in foundational research.

Background

The paper formalizes pursuitworthiness as expected epistemic gain minus cost. Applying this framework quantitatively would require expressing epistemic gains and research costs in a common unit, identifying every possible outcome of a project, and assigning precise probabilities to those outcomes.

The paper notes that these requirements are particularly difficult for foundational research, where outcomes may be unforeseeable and epistemic benefits may not be commensurable with financial or other costs. Whether the economic model can therefore support concrete numerical calculations remains unresolved.