Multivariate Bayesian analysis of seasonal temperature maxima

Analyze the seasonal maximum temperatures (Winter, Pre-monsoon, Monsoon, Post-monsoon) in a multivariate Bayesian framework to characterize the evolving intra-annual temperature structure and quantify implications for heatwaves and monsoon variability in India.

Background

The dataset includes seasonal maximum temperatures alongside annual maxima, and the paper notes strong correlations, particularly with post-monsoon temperatures. A multivariate approach could reveal joint behavior among seasons and their evolving structure.

The authors explicitly identify this as an open avenue, pointing to multivariate Bayesian modeling for deeper insight into intra-annual dynamics and associated climatic phenomena.