Identify truth-specific covariance coupling

Determine whether truth-specific covariance coupling is present and identifiable in the four-truth surface-quasigeostrophic covariance-closure pilot.

Background

The paper uses time-block, phase-scramble, and cross-truth reassignment nulls to assess whether the production response depends on the correct truth–forecast pairing. Although the time-block and phase-scramble nulls reject, the cross-truth reassignment test does not reject under the preregistered intersection–union rule.

Thus, the evidence supports a lifecycle shared across the sampled truths but does not resolve whether the covariance coupling is truth-specific. Establishing this would require further data or a more discriminating relational test.