Effectiveness of pre-election blackout dates for polls and prediction markets

Evaluate whether implementing blackout periods for both public-opinion polls and online prediction markets prior to election day adequately mitigates their potential influence on voting behavior and contributes to hardening these markets against manipulation.

Background

To limit the potential influence of pre-election information, blackout dates have been proposed. However, the authors explicitly express uncertainty about whether such blackout periods would effectively address the broader issues, including market manipulation and the need to harden online prediction markets. This leaves open the question of policy efficacy and technical safeguards.