Influence of releasing prediction-market information on voter behavior

Investigate whether disseminating performance and projections from online prediction markets such as Polymarket affects voter behavior in future elections, and quantify any causal impact.

Background

The authors caution that publicizing the apparent predictive superiority of Polymarket could change future electoral dynamics by influencing voter decisions. They explicitly state uncertainty about whether releasing such information will affect voting behavior, noting broader concerns that pre-election data visualizations can shape electoral outcomes.