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Supercell classification of the 13 August 2021 Bulacan severe thunderstorm

Determine whether the hail-producing severe thunderstorm that affected Norzagaray and San Jose Del Monte, Bulacan, on 13 August 2021 was a supercell, by classifying its storm mode using appropriate observational evidence (e.g., radar or validated remote proxies).

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Background

The case paper documents a significant hail event (“Friday the 13th Hailstorm”) in Bulacan, Philippines, with reported hail sizes up to ~8 cm. The authors analyze synoptic, mesoscale, and storm-evolution evidence using ERA5, HIMAWARI-8, and PLDN lightning data but lacked access to nearby radar observations, which are typically crucial for storm-mode classification.

Despite indicators such as overshooting tops and substantial cloud-layer shear, the authors cannot confirm whether the storm was a supercell. Establishing the storm mode would clarify the dynamical processes that enabled large hail formation and improve understanding of severe convection in this region.

References

We were not sure whether this severe storm is a supercell or not given that we do not have an access to the nearest radar, but close inspection of lightning flash counts showed that this transition is preceded by a significant increase in lightning activity, suggesting that this product has some potential for its use in lightning jump algorithms that could be used as a nowcasting tool.

Friday the 13th Hailstorm in the province of Bulacan, Philippines (13 August 2021): A Case Study (2412.09307 - Capuli, 12 Dec 2024) in Section 4 (Conclusion)