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Determine ENSO/MJO influence on Philippine tornado formation

Determine whether and how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) influence tornado formation in the Philippines, and quantify any relationships using sufficiently long observational or reanalysis time series and appropriate severe convection metrics.

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Background

The paper acknowledges established links between ENSO/MJO and convection or precipitation, but emphasizes that the influence on Philippine tornado formation cannot yet be assessed due to insufficient evidence and short data records.

Resolving this would clarify large-scale drivers of severe convection in the region and improve predictability of tornado-favorable environments.

References

However, it is not yet possible to determine the influence of such oscillations on tornado formation in Philippines, as there is insufficient evidence and relatively short data series.

— Project Severe Weather Archive of the Philippines (SWAP). Part 1: Establishing a Baseline Climatology for Severe Weather across the Philippine Archipelago (2409.03211 - Capuli, 5 Sep 2024) in Conclusions, page 16