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Chinese share growth (2019–2022): real trend or coverage artifact

Ascertain whether the observed increase in China’s share of aggregate AI supercomputer performance between 2019 and early 2022 represents a genuine trend or results from low coverage in the compiled dataset of AI supercomputers.

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Background

The dataset shows a substantial rise in China’s share of AI supercomputer performance up to early 2022, followed by a decline. Due to known coverage limitations—especially for industry systems and Chinese deployments—the authors express uncertainty about whether the observed rise is genuine or an artifact. Resolving this would improve cross‑country compute trend assessments and policy analysis.

References

Between 2019 and 2022, the Chinese share grew considerably, reaching about 40% at the start of 2022, although we are unsure if this reflects a real trend or is an artifact of our low data coverage.

Trends in AI Supercomputers (2504.16026 - Pilz et al., 22 Apr 2025) in Section 3.6 (Results: Distribution by country)