Adequacy of Uncertainty Communication for Decision-Making in Time Series Forecasts

Determine whether the contextual information and visual encodings used in time-series forecast visualizations—such as line charts depicting credible or confidence intervals—communicate the nature and complexity of uncertainty sufficiently to enable users to incorporate uncertainty estimates into their decision-making processes.

Background

The paper investigates how uncertainty in time-series predictions is communicated and understood by users, focusing on visualization techniques such as confidence bands and credible intervals in line charts. Misinterpretations during the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for clarity in conveying uncertainty.

Within this context, the authors explicitly note uncertainty about whether current practices adequately convey the complexity and nature of uncertainty in a way that supports user decision-making, motivating two user studies to examine visualization performance, user characteristics, and information needs.