Integrating Network and Attack Graphs for Service-Centric Impact Analysis (2507.00637v1)

Abstract: We present a novel methodology for modelling, visualising, and analysing cyber threats, attack paths, as well as their impact on user services in enterprise or infrastructure networks of digital devices and services they provide. Using probabilistic methods to track the propagation of an attack through attack graphs, via the service or application layers, and on physical communication networks, our model enables us to analyse cyber attacks at different levels of detail. Understanding the propagation of an attack within a service among microservices and its spread between different services or application servers could help detect and mitigate it early. We demonstrate that this network-based influence spreading modelling approach enables the evaluation of diverse attack scenarios and the development of protection and mitigation measures, taking into account the criticality of services from the user's perspective. This methodology could also aid security specialists and system administrators in making well-informed decisions regarding risk mitigation strategies.