In the Network of the Conclave: Social Network Analysis and the Making of a Pope

Abstract: This study brings a network perspective to the centuries-old mystery of papal elections by mapping the relational architecture of the College of Cardinals. Using publicly available data sources, such as official Vatican directories and episcopal consecration records, we assemble a multilayered network that captures cardinals' co-membership in various collegial bodies of the Vatican and their consecration ties. We then calculate structural metrics to capture three key mechanisms that we suggest have a crucial role in the dynamics of the conclave: status, mediation power, and coalition building. Our descriptive study -- publicly shared before the white smoke of May 8, 2025 -- uncovers a striking case: Cardinal Robert F. Prevost, largely ignored by pundits, bookmakers, and AI models, held a uniquely advantageous position in the Vatican network, by virtue of being both highly central and positioned in-between others. Thus, although considered an underdog by many, the network perspective suggests that Cardinal Prevost (elected as Pope Leo XIV) was de facto one of the strongest "papabili". In highlighting the divergence between network-agnostic and network-informed analyses, we show the merit of adopting a social network perspective to study the conclave. Rather than predicting ballots, our work demonstrates how network theory can reveal the structural preconditions for consensus. We argue that any serious inquiry into future conclaves -- or analogous elite decision processes -- must begin by charting the relational space of influence before considering doctrinal, regional, or theological dimensions.