Identification and estimation of causal peer effects using instrumental variables (2504.05658v2)

Abstract: In social science researches, causal inference regarding peer effects often faces significant challenges due to homophily bias and contextual confounding. For example, unmeasured health conditions (e.g., influenza) and psychological states (e.g., happiness, loneliness) can spread among closely connected individuals, such as couples or siblings. To address these issues, we define four effect estimands for dyadic data to characterize direct effects and spillover effects. We employ dual instrumental variables to achieve nonparametric identification of these causal estimands in the presence of unobserved confounding. We then derive the efficient influence functions for these estimands under the nonparametric model. Additionally, we develop a triply robust and locally efficient estimator that remains consistent even under partial misspecification of the observed data model. The proposed robust estimators can be easily adapted to flexible approaches such as machine learning estimation methods, provided that certain rate conditions are satisfied. Finally, we illustrate our approach through simulations and an empirical application evaluating the peer effects of retirement on fluid cognitive perception among couples.