A Joint Model of Longitudinal CVD Risk Factors, Medication Use, and Time-to-Terminal Events (2503.17576v1)

Abstract: We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for jointly modeling longitudinal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor trajectories, medication use, and time-to-events. Our methodology incorporates longitudinal risk factor trajectories into the time-to-event model, considers the temporal aspect of medication use, incorporates uncertainty due to missing medication status and medication switching, and analyzes the impact of medications on CVD events. Our research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the effect of CVD progression and medication use on time to death, enhancing predictive accuracy and informing personalized intervention strategies. Using data from a cardiovascular cohort study, we demonstrate the model's ability to capture detailed temporal dynamics and enhance predictive accuracy for CVD events.