Generalised shot noise representations of stochastic systems driven by non-Gaussian Lévy processes (2305.05931v2)

Abstract: We consider the problem of obtaining effective representations for the solutions of linear, vector-valued stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by non-Gaussian pure-jump L\'evy processes, and we show how such representations lead to efficient simulation methods. The processes considered constitute a broad class of models that find application across the physical and biological sciences, mathematics, finance and engineering. Motivated by important relevant problems in statistical inference, we derive new, generalised shot-noise simulation methods whenever a normal variance-mean (NVM) mixture representation exists for the driving L\'evy process, including the generalised hyperbolic, normal-Gamma, and normal tempered stable cases. Simple, explicit conditions are identified for the convergence of the residual of a truncated shot-noise representation to a Brownian motion in the case of the pure L\'evy process, and to a Brownian-driven SDE in the case of the L\'evy-driven SDE. These results provide Gaussian approximations to the small jumps of the process under the NVM representation. The resulting representations are of particular importance in state inference and parameter estimation for L\'evy-driven SDE models, since the resulting conditionally Gaussian structures can be readily incorporated into latent variable inference methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Expectation-Maximisation (EM), and sequential Monte Carlo.