Statistics of multivariate extremes under random censoring

Abstract: We study tail dependence of a $d$-dimensional random vector whose coordinates are subject to random right censoring. Along each fixed direction the censored problem reduces exactly to a univariate one, and the observed data determine the radius and whether it was produced by the event or censoring vector. An ordinary Kaplan--Meier product limit therefore estimates the joint tail probability in that direction, in every dimension, and with no multivariate survival function, no smoothing and no tuning parameter beyond the threshold. The theory of this directional estimator is formulated under an arbitrary marginal standardization and conditions only imposed on the standardized laws, in particular for any max-domain of attraction. We prove uniform consistency and functional weak convergence at the square root of the effective number of joint extremes, allowing the standardization to be estimated. A multiplicative standardization recovers the heavy-tailed theory, whereas a standardization built from the marginal (non-directional) Kaplan--Meier estimators requires no marginal tail model and targets the normalized tail copula itself. The standardization error is negligible for the former, and for the latter under a mild condition on the joint censoring. Simulation studies validate the finite-sample performance of the estimator. An application to the National Flood Insurance Program dataset comprised of claims generated by Hurricane Ian estimates the joint upper tail of building and contents losses from indemnities, which are subject to capping, simultaneously in both coordinates.