Least-false Cox coefficients under affine follow-up contamination: exact continuous- and grouped-time benchmarks

Abstract: Covariates summarized over a subject's completed follow-up are sometimes entered into Cox regression as though observed at baseline. This practice incorporates future event or censoring information and changes both the estimand and its sampling behavior. We analyze an affine class in which a genuine baseline covariate is contaminated by realized follow-up time. Treating partial likelihood as an observed-data estimation criterion, we derive the population score and characterize its unique least-false coefficient. Exact continuous-time benchmarks show scale reduction and saturation under strong contamination, while administrative censoring destroys the reduction and may produce overshoot. Grouping exit times with Breslow ties changes the geometry: the coefficient has a single hump and eventually returns to zero even though the induced association diverges. We also derive an observed-data influence function and show why model-based variance can be either too small or too large. A subject-level sandwich consistently estimates uncertainty around the least-false target under the stated conditions, but it does not correct the target itself.