Thermal X-ray signatures in late-stage unequal-mass massive black hole binary mergers (2503.01494v1)

Abstract: The multi-messenger combination of gravitational waves (GWs) from merging massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) and the electromagnetic (EM) counterpart from the surrounding circumbinary disk (CBD) will open avenues to new scientific pursuits. In order to realize this science, we need to correctly localize the host galaxy of the merging MBHB. Multi-wavelength, time-dependent electromagnetic (EM) signatures can greatly facilitate the identification of the unique EM counterpart among many sources in LISA's localization volume. To this end, we studied merging unequal-mass MBHBs embedded in a CBD using high-resolution 2D simulations, with a $\Gamma$-law equation of state, incorporating viscous heating, shock heating and radiative cooling. We simulate each binary starting from before it decouples from the CBD until just after the merger. We compute EM signatures and identify distinct features before, during, and after the merger. We corroborate previous findings of a several order of magnitude drop in the thermal X-ray luminosity near the time of merger, but with delayed timing compared to an equal-mass system. The source remains X-ray dark for hours post-merger. Our main results are a potential new signature of a sharp spike in the thermal X-ray emission just before the tell-tale steep drop occurs. This feature may further help to identify EM counterparts of LISA's unequal MBHBs before merger without the need for extensive pre-merger monitoring. Additionally, we find a role-reversal, in which the primary out-accretes the secondary during late inspiral, which may diminish signatures originating from Doppler modulation.