Expected Impact of Rubin Observatory LSST on NEO Follow-up (2408.12517v1)

Abstract: We simulate and analyse the contribution of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to the rate of discovery of Near Earth Object (NEO) candidates, their submission rates to the NEO Confirmation page (NEOCP), and the resulting demands on the worldwide NEO follow-up observation system. We find that, when using current NEOCP listing criteria, Rubin will typically contribute ~129 new objects to the NEOCP each night in the first year, an increase of ~8x relative to present day. Only 8.3% of the objects listed for follow-up will be NEOs, with the primary contaminant being a background of yet undiscovered, faint, main belt asteroids (MBAs). We consider follow-up prioritisation strategies to lessen the impact on the NEO follow-up system. We develop an algorithm that predicts (with 68% accuracy) whether Rubin itself will self recover any given tracklet; external follow-up of such candidates can be de-prioritised. With this algorithm enabled, the follow-up list would be reduced to 64 NEO candidates per night (with ~8.4% purity). We propose additional criteria based on trailing, apparent magnitude, and ecliptic latitude to further prioritise follow-up. We hope observation planners and brokers will adopt some of these open-source algorithms, enabling the follow-up community to effectively keep up with the NEOCP in the early years of LSST.