Implications of Zoning Ordinances for Rural Utility-Scale Solar Deployment and Power System Decarbonization in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract: Local zoning ordinances across the United States have the impact of restricting development of energy infrastructure, including utility-scale solar photovoltaics. While these ordinances may be developed for legitimate purposes to protect public health and safety, they could impede or increase costs of power sector decarbonization. We quantify the role of utility-scale solar zoning ordinances on power sector decarbonization across the Great Lakes region (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin) by integrating 6,300 rural community zoning ordinances into a power system planning model. Relative to no ordinances, solar zoning ordinances reduce total potential deployment of solar PV by 52% (or 1.6 TW) across our region. Currently, however, the biggest zoning barrier to deployment is zoning ordinances which are silent on utility-scale solar. Deployment restrictions translate to up to 4 GW greater investment needs and 5.6% greater PV investment costs to achieve a 10% PV generation target. Starker shifts occur at the state level, e.g. Wisconsin sees a 40% reduction in PV investments due to zoning restrictions. Our results underscore the need for planning that aligns local zoning laws with state and regional goals.