A General Method for Resampling Autocorrelated Spatial Data

Abstract: Comparing spatial data sets is a ubiquitous task in data analysis, however the presence of spatial autocorrelation means that standard estimates of variance will be wrong and tend to over-estimate the statistical significance of correlations and other observations. While there are a number of existing approaches to this problem, none are ideal, requiring detailed analytical calculations, which are hard to generalise or detailed knowledge of the data generating process, which may not be available. In this work we propose a resampling approach based on Tobler's Law. By resampling the data with fixed spatial autocorrelation, measured by Moran's I, we generate a more realistic null model. Testing on real and synthetic data, we find that, as long as the spatial autocorrelation is not too strong, this approach works just as well as if we knew the data generating process.