Polarization and Consensus in a Voter Model under Time-Fluctuating Influences

Abstract: We study the effect of time-fluctuating social influences on the formation of polarization and consensus in a three-party community consisting of two types of voters ("leftists" and "rightists") holding extreme opinions, and moderate agents acting as "centrists". The former are incompatible and do not interact, while centrists hold an intermediate opinion and can interact with extreme voters. When a centrist and a leftist/rightist interact, they can become either both centrists or both leftists/rightists. The population eventually either reaches consensus with one of the three opinions, or a polarization state consisting of a frozen mixture of leftists and rightists. As a main novelty, here agents interact subject to time-fluctuating external influences favouring in turn the spread of leftist and rightist opinions, or the rise of centrism. We determine the fate of the population under various scenarios, and show how the rate of change of external influences can drastically affect the polarization and consensus probabilities, as well as the mean time to reach the final state.