Pulsar and cosmic variances of pulsar timing-array correlation measurements of the stochastic gravitational wave background

Abstract: Pulsar timing-array correlation measurements offer an exciting opportunity to test the nature of gravity in the cosmologically novel nanohertz gravitational wave regime. The stochastic gravitational wave background is assumed Gaussian and random, while there are limited pulsar pairs in the sky. This brings theoretical uncertainties to the correlation measurements, namely the pulsar variance due to pulsar samplings and the cosmic variance due to Gaussian signals. We demonstrate a straightforward calculation of the mean and the variances on the Hellings-Downs correlation relying on a power spectrum formalism. We keep arbitrary pulsar distances and consider gravitational wave modes beyond Einstein gravity as well as off the light cone throughout, thereby presenting the most general and, most importantly, numerically efficient calculation of the variances.