On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability

Abstract: Extensive empirical studies show that the long distribution tail of travel time and the corresponding unexpected delay can have much more serious consequences than expected or moderate delay. However, the unexpected delay due to the distribution tail of travel time has received limited attention in recent studies of the valuation of travel time variability. As a complement to current valuation research, this paper proposes the concept of the value of travel time distribution tail, which quantifies the value that travelers place on reducing the unexpected delay for hedging against travel time variability. Methodologically, we define the summation of all unexpected delays as the unreliability area to quantify travel time distribution tail and show that it is a key element of two well-defined measures accounting for unreliable aspects of travel time. We then formally derive the value of distribution tail, show that it is distinct from the more established value of reliability (VOR), and combine it and the VOR in an overall value of travel time variability (VOV). We prove theoretically that the VOV exhibits diminishing marginal benefit in terms of the traveler's punctuality requirements under a validity condition. This implies that it may be economically inefficient for travelers to blindly pursue a higher probability of not being late. We then proceed to develop the concept of the travel time variability ratio, which gives the implicit cost of the punctuality requirement imposed on any given trip. Numerical examples reveal that the cost of travel time distribution tail can account for more than 10% of the trip cost, such that its omission could introduce non-trivial bias into route choice models and transportation appraisal more generally.