Validate the disinformation-cascade model against empirical data

Validate the proposed model of online disinformation cascades against empirical data by calibrating it to observed distributions of cascade sizes.

Background

The proposed model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations, heterogeneous mean-field approximations, Erdős–Rényi graphs, and an empirical Twitter network. However, the network data are used primarily to represent connectivity structure rather than to calibrate the full spreading dynamics against observed disinformation events. The authors explicitly identify empirical validation, including calibration to observed cascade-size distributions, as an unresolved requirement for assessing the model’s realism.

References

Although our stylised model can help understand how some features of the social media landscape affect disinformation spread, it has yet to be validated against empirical data --- e.g., by calibration on observed distributions of cascade sizes.

— Modelling the complex dynamics of online disinformation cascades  (2610.13839 - Moreno et al., 9 Oct 2026) in Section 3, Discussion