Timing of WallStreetBets activity relative to actual GameStop investments

Determine whether, and at which specific moments, the activity of Reddit’s WallStreetBets (WSB) users anticipated actual investments in the GameStop (GME) stock, to establish the causal role of WSB user activity in driving the January 2021 price surge.

Background

The January 2021 GameStop short squeeze was widely attributed to coordinated activity by retail investors on Reddit’s WallStreetBets (WSB). While prior work documented correlations between WSB discussions and market indicators, a key unresolved issue is whether WSB activity actually preceded and predicted investors’ trades, thereby playing a causal role in the price rally.

This paper analyzes high-resolution social media and market data using causal inference methods to test whether WSB discussions led trading activity and to identify the specific times when such anticipatory effects, if any, emerged.