Statistical formulation of no-retrocausality in ontological models

Develop a reasonable statistical formulation of no-retrocausality for probabilistic ontological models that captures the prohibition of influence from the future to the past without introducing the incompatibilities identified for genuinely stochastic theories.

Background

The paper examines attempts to extend Gisin’s deterministic argument to probabilistic ontological models. It argues that a naive conditional-independence formulation of probabilistic no-retrocausality is too restrictive for genuinely stochastic dynamics, while a more sophisticated formulation is too weak to derive Bell locality. The unresolved issue is therefore how to formulate no-retrocausality statistically in a way that is both physically reasonable and useful for a probabilistic generalization of Gisin’s argument.