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Posterior distribution in GLMMs with non-Gaussian responses

Determine the posterior density q(γ | y) of the random effects γ given the response y in generalized linear mixed models with canonical link and a multivariate normal prior on γ when y follows a non-Gaussian exponential family distribution. Specifically, derive an exact characterization or computable expression for q(γ | y) defined by q(γ | y) = f(y | γ) π(γ) / ∫ f(y | γ) π(γ) dγ over γ ∈ ℝ^r, which remains unresolved due to the intractable integral in the denominator.

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Background

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are specified by an exponential family conditional distribution for the response y with a canonical link and a multivariate normal prior for the random effects γ. For non-Gaussian responses, the posterior density q(γ | y) involves an intractable normalization integral, making analytical or exact computation difficult.

The paper introduces a Special Integral Computation (SIC) method that provides exact posterior mean and covariance for γ without computing the posterior density itself. Despite this advance, obtaining the full posterior distribution q(γ | y) remains unresolved, limiting fully Bayesian inferential procedures that require the complete posterior (e.g., credible intervals and posterior predictive checks).

References

We solve the posterior mean and covariance problem, although the posterior distribution problem remains unsolved.

Exact Posterior Mean and Covariance for Generalized Linear Mixed Models (2409.09310 - Zhang, 14 Sep 2024) in Section 1 (Introduction)