Net congestion effects of heatwaves

Ascertain the net congestion outcome produced by competing heatwave effects on transport systems, including reduced active-travel feasibility, increased modal shift toward cars, vehicle overheating, and resulting reductions in travel demand.

Background

The paper argues that the POESE metrics could be extended beyond rainfall-induced flooding to other extreme weather hazards, including heatwaves. Heatwaves may simultaneously increase congestion by shifting travellers toward cars and reduce congestion by causing vehicle overheating and cancelled journeys. The authors identify the resulting net congestion effect as uncertain and call for empirical evidence from historical events or surveys to support modelling assumptions.