Net benefit of AIRDA‑induced acceleration of AI progress

Determine whether acceleration of AI progress induced by automation of AI research and development (AIRDA) yields net beneficial outcomes overall, considering both the benefits of bringing forward useful capabilities and the risks of destructive capabilities and societal disruptions.

Background

The paper argues that automating AI research and development could speed up both capabilities and safety/security progress, potentially via recursive feedback loops and parallelized AI researchers. However, the order and relative rates of advancement matter: offensive capabilities might precede defensive ones, and institutions may fail to adapt in time. Because these dynamics can cut in different directions, the overall effect on welfare is uncertain.

Establishing whether AIRDA’s acceleration is net beneficial is central for policy and governance decisions, including whether to promote or constrain certain applications, how to time safety investments, and how to prepare institutions for rapid change.