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Assessment of amortized fully Bayesian neural methods (BayesFlow, JANA) for extreme-value applications

Investigate the applicability and performance of amortized fully Bayesian neural inference methods, specifically BayesFlow and JANA, for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification in extreme-value applications involving spatial or spatio-temporal extremes.

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Background

The authors point to amortized fully Bayesian neural methods as promising tools to address challenges in flexible spatial tail dependence modeling, including high-dimensional settings and computationally intensive likelihoods.

However, their suitability and reliability in extreme-value contexts have not yet been established. A careful investigation is needed to assess accuracy, robustness, and practical utility relative to traditional likelihood-based approaches, especially for extrapolation to joint tail regions.

References

While some of these challenges can be addressed by adopting some recent amortized fully-Bayes neural methods, such as BayesFlow \citep{radev2020bayesflow,radev2023bayesflow} or JANA \citep{radev2023jana}, their use in extreme-value applications remains to be carefully investigated.

Modeling of spatial extremes in environmental data science: Time to move away from max-stable processes (2401.17430 - Huser et al., 30 Jan 2024) in Section 4 (Conclusion)