Interpretation of Temporal Gender-Gap Convergence

Determine whether the narrowing of the gender gap in shortlisting from 2017 to 2022 reflects substantive fairness improvement or selection effects caused by a tightening recruitment pipeline.

Background

The audit observes that the gender shortlisting gap narrowed substantially over the five-year study period, from approximately 6.5 percentage points in 2017 to less than 1.3 percentage points in 2022. However, overall shortlisting rates for both men and women declined during the same period, suggesting that the apparent convergence may reflect broader changes in application volume, vacancy competition, or pipeline selectivity rather than improved fairness.

The available analysis uses aggregated operational data and therefore cannot distinguish genuine improvement in gender equity from compositional or selection effects. Longitudinal monitoring with more detailed data on vacancies, applicants, analyst practices, and platform changes is needed to resolve the interpretation.

References

A plausible explanation is increased application volume relative to vacancies, producing higher competition and lower shortlisting rates across both groups. Whether the convergence reflects substantive fairness improvement or selection effects in a tightening pipeline cannot be determined from aggregated data.

— Applied and Filtered: An End-to-End Algorithmic Fairness Audit of A Public Employment Agency  (2608.13022 - Galdón-Clavell, 13 Aug 2026) in Section 5.8, subsection “Temporal Dynamics”