Full Bayesian analysis of GW250114

Develop a full Bayesian analysis of the entire GW250114 event that jointly models the ringdown quasinormal-mode information and the inspiral–merger–ringdown posterior, rather than relying on approximate multivariate-Gaussian posterior information and a theory-agnostic fundamental-mode analysis.

Background

The application to GW250114 uses publicly released posterior samples for the fundamental ell=m=2 quasinormal mode and approximates the remnant mass and spin from the inspiral–merger–ringdown analysis with multivariate Gaussian distributions. The authors emphasize that this procedure is approximate and that the theory-agnostic ringdown analysis is not equivalent to analyzing the complete event within a single Bayesian framework.

A complete event-level Bayesian treatment would consistently combine the inspiral, merger, and ringdown information while inferring the KRZ coefficients or local metric quantities. Such an analysis would remove the approximations used in the paper’s demonstration and provide a more rigorous assessment of the constraints on rotating black-hole geometry from GW250114.