Fraction of Type II supernova progenitors with pre-explosion eruptions

Determine the fraction of Type II supernova progenitors that undergo eruptive mass-loss episodes in the years preceding core collapse by quantifying the occurrence rate and properties of precursor outbursts in statistically robust samples.

Background

The paper reviews evidence for enhanced late-time mass loss in core-collapse supernovae and highlights precursor outbursts observed prior to explosion in some strongly interacting events. However, the authors note that current samples of pre-explosion activity remain modest because such precursors are relatively faint and challenging to detect systematically.

Establishing the prevalence of eruptive mass loss among hydrogen-rich Type II supernova progenitors is crucial for constraining mass-loss paradigms and for interpreting early-time interaction signatures such as flash ionization and narrow-line emission. A robust measurement of the fraction experiencing eruptions would test proposed mechanisms (e.g., pulsations, wave-driven heating) and inform progenitor models.

References

It remains unclear what fraction of SN~II progenitors experience these eruptions prior to explosion -- some plausible precursor outbursts have been observed~\citep[e.g. ][]{Ho2019,Jacobson-Galan2022,Reguitti2024}, but the sample remains modest owing to the relative faintness of the precursors.

— SN 2024cld: unveiling the complex mass-loss histories of evolved supergiant progenitors to core collapse supernovae  (2510.27631 - Killestein et al., 31 Oct 2025) in Section 1 (Introduction)