Feasibility of a Martian biosphere

Determine whether Mars can support a sustained biosphere capable of supporting large numbers of people, considering constraints such as present-day temperature, water availability, soil chemistry (e.g., perchlorates and salts), and atmospheric composition, and quantify the environmental modifications required to make this possible.

Background

The roadmap notes that a Martian biosphere would underpin long-term human presence by supporting food and oxygen production, but Mars is currently too cold and dry, with chemically challenging soils and a thin atmosphere. The authors emphasize that surface warming sufficient for liquid water is necessary but not sufficient for establishing a biosphere.

This high-level scientific uncertainty motivates the proposed research portfolio, which seeks to assess both local and regional-to-global warming and their interactions with biology, resources, and climate feedbacks.

References

Whether Mars can support a biosphere is unknown.

— A research roadmap for assessing the feasibility of warming Mars  (2604.02242 - Kite et al., 2 Apr 2026) in Section 1, Introduction

Against these agents on the scale of a meter thick regolith (or other solid material) layer gives enough shielding, and the millimetre thin mineral cover is not enough here. However, in theory, highly adapted organisms (Olsson-Francis and Cockell, 2009) could repair their internal radiation-driven damages in the active phase, the question is: could an organism provide enough regular repair using the short periods useful for metabolism and related living activities under the harsh conditions. Based on our current knowledge this cannot be properly answered (Michalski et al., 2018), although it cannot be excluded; however, it remains a highly theoretical question.

— Current water trapping micro-habitats on the surface of Mars  (2609.01156 - Bognar et al., 1 Sep 2026) in Section 4.1, Evaluation of further conditions and possibilities