Disentangling misconduct versus detection effects in retraction growth

Determine the relative contributions of changes in underlying research misconduct and serious error versus changes in detection capacity (including faster identification and shorter publication-to-retraction lags) to the observed exponential growth in global retraction incidence from 1992 to 2021 in exposure-adjusted analyses of OpenAlex and Retraction Watch–flagged retractions.

Background

The study finds exponential growth in retraction incidence at both the paper and author level but acknowledges that improvements in detection and editorial practices have accelerated retractions over time. The publication-to-retraction lag has decreased markedly, complicating causal attribution of incidence growth.

Because retractions represent a mixture of honest error, misconduct, and policy changes, and because detection capacity varies over time and across fields and publishers, separating underlying prevalence from detection dynamics remains unresolved.