Disentangle transmission-pathway contributions to county-level HPAI burden

Determine the relative contributions of local, environmental, movement-mediated, and distance-dependent spatial transmission to the HPAI burden observed in individual counties of Jolly Island.

Background

The stochastic county–production metapopulation model represents four transmission pathways simultaneously: local within-county transmission, environmental exposure, movement-mediated transmission, and distance-dependent spatial transmission. County-level cumulative infectious-farm-days and spatial maps quantify where burden occurs, but these aggregate outcomes do not by themselves attribute observed burden to a particular mechanism. Identifying the contribution of each pathway would improve interpretation of geographic hotspots and could support more targeted control interventions.

References

However, because local, environmental, movement-mediated, and distance-dependent transmission operated simultaneously, the maps alone could not determine the relative contribution of each pathway to the burden observed in an individual county.

— Stochastic Spatial Metapopulation Modelling of HPAI Control and Poultry Restocking on Jolly Island  (2608.12956 - Fatoyinbo et al., 13 Aug 2026) in Section 3, subsection “County-level burden and spatiotemporal dynamics”