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Develop a dependent marked version where mark sizes influence intensities

Develop and analyze a dependent marked version of the proposed multivariate self- and mutually exciting point process with flexible residuals, in which the mark size of each event affects the subsequent λ processes, rather than assuming independent marks.

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Background

In the empirical applications, the paper treats the mark sizes (price jump magnitudes) as independent and not influencing future intensities to keep the model tractable. This simplifies estimation and simulation but omits potentially important dependence between mark sizes and subsequent event intensities.

The authors explicitly state that allowing marks to affect the intensity is feasible but increases complexity, and they leave this dependent marked extension for future research.

References

Although it is feasible to implement a dependent marked model in which the mark size affects the λ process in the proposed model, such an approach would increase the model complexity and is left for future research.

Self and mutually exciting point process embedding flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics (2401.13890 - Lee, 25 Jan 2024) in Subsubsection 'Multivariate model and simulation', Section 3.2 'Sparsely observed data'