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State-dependent jump sizes and the Markov property in short-rate models

Investigate short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities in which the jump magnitude at each fixed jump time depends on the current level of the risk-free rate, and ascertain whether and under what conditions the resulting interest-rate process retains the Markov property required by the pricing framework.

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Background

Within affine short-rate models that include square-root diffusion terms (CIR-type), maintaining non-negativity across jump times typically forces the jump sizes to be non-negative. The authors note that one way to avoid this restriction is to allow the jump sizes to depend on the current level of the risk-free rate.

However, they caution that such state-dependent jumps may compromise the Markov property, which is central to their PDE and pricing framework. The detailed analysis of this extension—how to model state-dependent jump sizes and whether the Markov property can be preserved—is not developed in the paper and is deferred to future research.

References

To avoid this restriction, one could allow the size of the jumps to depend on the current level of the risk-free rate. However, this introduces a non-trivial mathematical challenge, as it may compromise the Markov property of the process. A thorough investigation of this extension is left for future research.

Short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities: a PDE approach (2510.04289 - Calvia et al., 5 Oct 2025) in Section 5 (Affine models), footnote in the discussion of CIR-type diffusion and jump restrictions