Determine the physical source of regular forecast errors

Determine whether regular forecast errors in observed trajectory residuals arise from weak uncorrected forcing or from forcing that is actively corrected, since both mechanisms can satisfy the same stationary and pure-nondeterministic error conditions.

Background

The stationary forecast-residual assumption is shared by the inert and stabilized reference regimes. The paper notes that regular prediction errors therefore establish a statistical property of the observer–trajectory system without identifying the physical mechanism producing those errors.

Additional disturbance-response or impulse-response information is required to distinguish weak inert forcing from actively corrected forcing. The source of the regular errors remains unresolved under the regularity assumption alone.