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Introduce correlation in exact multivariate CIR simulation

Develop an intuitive and exact method to introduce cross-series correlation when simulating multivariate Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) processes using the “exact” distribution algorithm based on normal and chi-square components, instead of relying on Euler discretization to impose correlation between series.

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Background

The paper simulates bivariate interest rate series using the CIR model. While the one-dimensional CIR process has an exact transition law that can be sampled via a normal–chi-square mixture, the authors note difficulty in introducing correlation directly within this exact sampling framework for multiple series.

As a practical workaround, they correlate the series by switching to Euler discretization, acknowledging that a conceptually clear, exact approach to incorporate cross-series correlation is not evident. Establishing such a methodology would enable exact correlated sampling without sacrificing the benefits of the exact transition law.

References

In the simulation algorithm for "exact" distribution with normal distribution and χ2 distribution as components, it is not clear how to introduce correlation across time series in an intuitive way. To introduce correlation between the two simulated series, simulation uses Euler discretimzation.

Deep Generative Modeling for Financial Time Series with Application in VaR: A Comparative Review (2401.10370 - Ericson et al., 18 Jan 2024) in Subsubsection “CIR for Interest Rates,” Section 3.2.2 (Simulated data for model training and testing), footnote