Cause of first-mover advantage in Moltbook attention dynamics

Determine whether the observed association between early arrival and high cumulative upvotes on Moltbook is driven primarily by a causal preferential-attachment feedback loop (where early visibility increases subsequent attention) or by selection effects (where higher-quality agents self-select into early adoption), accounting for right-censoring and potential confounders.

Background

The analysis shows that early-arriving agents (first quartile by first-post time) receive vastly more attention than later cohorts (mean upvotes per agent 1,692 vs. 1.9), consistent with preferential-attachment dynamics. The authors note mechanical right-censoring and plausible confounders for later cohorts.

They explicitly state that they cannot distinguish between a causal feedback mechanism and selection effects, leaving the causal source of the first-mover advantage unresolved.