Carrier-grade HAPS service validation

Establish whether HAPS communication systems can satisfy the carrier-grade KPI four-tuple comprising Block Error Rate under load, mobility performance, mean time between platform losses with the required fleet multiplier, and meter-class station-keeping precision for repeat-pass interferometry, thereby enabling commercial deployment.

Background

The paper reports that existing HAPS communication demonstrations have shown that an air interface can terminate at stratospheric altitude, but they have not been operated at sufficient duration or user density to measure the performance metrics required for commercial service. The unresolved validation problem spans radio performance under load and mobility, platform reliability, fleet-level availability, and the station-keeping precision needed for repeat-pass interferometry.

This problem is central to determining whether HAPS can progress from isolated technology demonstrations to an operational persistent communications tier, particularly for direct-to-unmodified-smartphone service and mission-critical public-safety communications.

References

Carrier-grade service, station-keeping precision, and regulation remain the principal open problems, and we pose the persistent-tier reading as a testable hypothesis with dated 2030 markers.

HAPS through the Lens of Satellites and UAVs: A Function-Level Perspective on the Emerging High Altitude Economy  (2608.16828 - Ahmad et al., 17 Aug 2026) in Section 5.8, “Carrier-Grade KPIs beyond the Flight Demonstrations”; also summarized in the Abstract