Quantify the future CAP activity enhancement predicted by the 169P/NEAT dynamical model

Determine the magnitude of the future b1 Capricornids activity enhancement predicted by the 169P/NEAT meteoroid-evolution model, including the effects of assumed shower duration and particle evolution.

Background

The discussion compares the observed b1 Capricornids and Daytime Capricornids-Sagittariids activity with a dynamical model of meteoroids released from comet 169P/NEAT. That model predicts a strong increase in b1 Capricornids activity during the twenty-third and twenty-fourth centuries.

The predicted peak rate is not quantitatively established because it depends on assumptions about the shower duration and the evolution of the particles. Extending the model to the smaller meteoroids sampled by PANSY is also required for a direct comparison with the measured activity profiles.

References

The modeled peak rate depends on assumptions about shower duration and particle evolution, so its magnitude remains uncertain.

— The PANSY Meteor Head-echo Orbit Catalogue: Continuous Antarctic Radar Observations of Southern Meteoroid Streams  (2608.17589 - Vierinen et al., 18 Aug 2026) in Section 5.2, The CAP--DCS complex