Mechanics-Informed Machine Learning for Geospatial Modeling of Soil Liquefaction: Global and National Surrogate Models for Simulation and Near-Real-Time Response (2509.10962v1)

Abstract: Using ML, high performance computing, and a large body of geospatial information, we develop surrogate models to predict soil liquefaction across regional scales. Two sets of models - one global and one specific to New Zealand - are trained by learning to mimic geotechnical models at the sites of in-situ tests. Our geospatial approach has conceptual advantages in that predictions: (i) are anchored to mechanics, which encourages more sensible response and scaling across the domains of soil, site, and loading characteristics; (ii) are driven by ML, which allows more predictive information to be used, with greater potential for it to be exploited; (iii) are geostatistically updated by subsurface data, which anchors the predictions to known conditions; and (iv) are precomputed everywhere on earth for all conceivable earthquakes, which allows the models to be executed very easily, thus encouraging user adoption and evaluation. Test applications suggest that: (i) the proposed models outperform others to a statistically significant degree; (ii) the geostatistical updating further improves performance; and (iii) the anticipated advantages of region-specific models may largely be negated by the benefits of learning from larger global datasets. These models are best suited for regional-scale liquefaction hazard simulation and near-real-time response and are accompanied by variance products that convey where, and to what degree, the ML-predicted liquefaction response is influenced by local geotechnical data.