On semi-supervised estimation using exponential tilt mixture models

Abstract: Consider a semi-supervised setting with a labeled dataset of binary responses and predictors and an unlabeled dataset with only the predictors. Logistic regression is equivalent to an exponential tilt model in the labeled population. For semi-supervised estimation, we develop further analysis and understanding of a statistical approach using exponential tilt mixture (ETM) models and maximum nonparametric likelihood estimation, while allowing that the class proportions may differ between the unlabeled and labeled data. We derive asymptotic properties of ETM-based estimation and demonstrate improved efficiency over supervised logistic regression in a random sampling setup and an outcome-stratified sampling setup previously used. Moreover, we reconcile such efficiency improvement with the existing semiparametric efficiency theory when the class proportions in the unlabeled and labeled data are restricted to be the same. We also provide a simulation study to numerically illustrate our theoretical findings.