Multi-decadal Sea Level Prediction using Neural Networks and Spectral Clustering on Climate Model Large Ensembles and Satellite Altimeter Data

Abstract: Sea surface height observations provided by satellite altimetry since 1993 show a rising rate (3.4 mm/year) for global mean sea level. While on average, sea level has risen 10 cm over the last 30 years, there is considerable regional variation in the sea level change. Through this work, we predict sea level trends 30 years into the future at a 2-degree spatial resolution and investigate the future patterns of the sea level change. We show the potential of ML in this challenging application of long-term sea level forecasting over the global ocean. Our approach incorporates sea level data from both altimeter observations and climate model simulations. We develop a supervised learning framework using fully connected neural networks (FCNNs) that can predict the sea level trend based on climate model projections. Alongside this, our method provides uncertainty estimates associated with the ML prediction. We also show the effectiveness of partitioning our spatial dataset and learning a dedicated ML model for each segmented region. We compare two partitioning strategies: one achieved using domain knowledge, and the other employing spectral clustering. Our results demonstrate that segmenting the spatial dataset with spectral clustering improves the ML predictions.